FortniteItem Shop Token
The guide

Fortnite token chance calculator

How likely is a Pirate Shop Token after hundreds—or thousands—of chests? Explore the math with your own assumptions. This tool does not know the real drop rate.

Choose your assumptions

All presets are illustrative. The 700,000 figure circulates online but is not a verified rate.

1 in

The model assumes equal chest counts, independent rolls and shared access. Party sharing is reported, not independently tested here.

Calculated chance of at least one find0.995%

Across all the chest openings in your hypothetical scenario.

Total modeled chest openings
1,000
Chance of no find
99.005%

An estimate under your assumptions, not a prediction or a guarantee.

What the calculator actually does

With a per-chest chance of 1 / N and c independent openings, the probability of at least one find is:

P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − 1 / N)c

Past misses do not increase the next chest’s chance in this model. It assumes a constant rate and no guaranteed-drop system; it does not prove those are the game’s rules. Very large probabilities may round to 100%.

An unknown rate stays unknown

A calculator can explain a hypothetical rate, but it cannot establish one. Different loot rules, duplicate rewards or party behavior would change the model. Check the source notes before treating any online estimate as evidence.

Read the sources & editorial notes